augmented ARDL, Hodrick-Prescott filter, Baxter-King filter.


This study was aimed to test the relationship between the unemployment rate and agricultural growth rates in the agricultural sector of Iraq according to Okun's Law for the period 1998-2019. The differences and gap versions of Okun's Law for the relationship was conducted, Alongside with Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter to find the potential production and the Baxter-King (BK) filter to find the trend of unemployment for the agricultural sector, and then to find production and unemployment gaps. Bootstrapping method was used to generate data because the lack of data and Augmented ARDL to identify the cointegration. The result of independent-F test at the level was insignificant with a value of 1.49 for the differences model, that is less than the critical value which is 9.26 of the 0.05 level of significance. While the result of independent-F test at the level of the gap model was 1.89, which is less than the critical value which is 12.8 at 0.05 the level of significance. Thus, confirming the absence of a co-integration relationship between the two variables. This result confirms the complete absence of Okun's relationship with the two versions in the Iraqi agricultural sector.


Akpan, S. B., S. J. Udoka, and I. V. Patrick. 2021. agricultural sub sectors’ outputs and economic growth in nigeria: implication for agricultural production intensification. AKSU Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences 5 (1): 56 – 68

Al khazeli, M. H. O. and B. H. Al-Badri. 2021. Financial and economic evaluation of the livestock fund of the agricultural initiativein iraqfor the period(2009-2018). Iraqi Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 52(3): 647-657.

Al-Hayali, A. D. and T. K. Hassan. 2020. Economic analysis of factors affecting Iraq's investment climate and its impact on attracting foreign direct investment to the agricultural sector. Al Kut Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 13(39): 153-169

Al-Marei, M. A. and I. A. Al-Masbah. 2016. Estimating the output gap in the Saudi economy during the period 1970-2012: An empirical study using the multivariate Hodrick Prescott and Kalman filters. Arab Economic Research. 23(75): 159-175

Al-Sudani A. H. and A. D. Al-Hayali. 2021. An economic analysis of the effect of some economic variables on the structure of agricultural employment in Iraq for the period 1990-2017. Iraqi Journal of Agricultural Sciences 52(3): 682-690.

Apap, W. and D. Gravino. 2014. Okun’s Law in Malta: Lessons Learnt from a Sectoral Perspective. Ministry for Finance Malta, Economic Policy Department, Working Paper Series. JEL classifcation codes: E24, E32: 1-25

Apap, W. and D. Gravino. 2017. A Sectoral Approach to Okun’s Law. Applied Economics Letters. Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Baxter, M. and R. G. King. 1999. Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 81(4): 575-593

Bertelli, S., G. Vacca and M. G. Zoia. 2022. Bootstrap Cointegration Tests in ARDL Models.

Biyase, M., and L. Bonga-Bonga. 2007. South Africa’s growth paradox. In DEGIT Conference Papers,[Online] Available: www. degit. ifwkiel. de/papers/degit_12/C012_043

Cate, T. 2013. An Encyclopedia of Keynesian Economics, 2nd ed. Edward Elgar Publishing Limited. Cheltenham, UK • Northampton, MA, USA. pp: 529

Dahmani, M. A. 2013. The problem of employment in Algeria: an attempt to analyze. PhD Dissertation. University of Abu Bakr Belkaid / Faculty of Economics and Management Sciences. pp: 240

Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller. 1979. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a): 427-431

Dogan, H. G., G. Erdal and G. Karakas. 2015. evaluation as econometrics of the relationship between unemployment and economics growth in Turkey (Okun's law case). Journal of New Results in Science, 4(8): 13-21

Elhorst, J. P. and S. Emili. 2022. A spatial econometric multivariate model of Okun's law. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 93, 103756

Elshamy, H. 2013. The Relationship Between Unemployment and Production in Egypt. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences. No. 81: 22-26

El-Shorbagy, M. 2009. The impact of economic growth on employment in the Egyptian economy. Journal of North African Economics. (6): 141-170

Goto, E., and C. Bürgi. 2021. Sectoral Okun's law and cross-country cyclical differences. Economic Modelling. 94: 91-103.

Guisinger, A. Y., M. T. Owyang and Hannah G. Shell. 2018. Comparing Measures of Potential Output. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. 100(4): 297-316.

Hodrick, R. J. and E. C. Prescott. 2009. Postwar U. S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation. 29(1): 1–16

International Monetary Fund. 2017. Report of the Issues Selected in the 2017 Article IV Consultation. International Monetary Fund Country Report No. 317/17. Washington, DC.

Juda, N. H. and R. A. Issa. 2010. The relationship between economic growth and unemployment in Iraq using Okun law and Toda-Yamamoto Test. Al -Qadisiyah Magazine for Administrative and Economic Sciences. 12(3): 63-87

Jumah, A. and R. M. Kunst. 2007. Agriculture and Economic Growth in Africa Revisited : A Modified Okun’s Law. no. June: 1–16.

Kennedy, P. E. 2000. Macroeconomic Essentials: Understanding Economics in the News – 2nd edition. The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. pp: 27.

Knotek, E. S. 2007. How useful is Okun's law? Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 92(4): 73-103

McNown, R., C. Y. Sam. and S. K. Goh. 2018. Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration. Applied Economics, 50(13): 1509-1521

Moosa, I. 2008. Economic growth and unemployment in Arab countries: Is Okun’s law Valid? Journal of Development and Economic Policies, 10(2), 7-24

Nelson, C. R., and C. R. Plosser. 1982. Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications. Journal of monetary economics, 10(2): 139-162

Okun, A. M. 1962. Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance. In Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section. Alexandria, VA: American Statistical Association, pp: 98-103

Okun, A. M., N. H. Teeters, W. Smith and R. A. Gordon. 1970. The full employment surplus revisited. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. (1), 77-116

Özçelik, Ö., and C. Erdem. 2020. The relationship between unemployment and economic production: an examination of the Okun law for Turkey. Econder International Academic Journal, 4(2): 326-341

Pata, U. K. and A. Kumar. 2021. The influence of hydropower and coal consumption on greenhouse gas emissions: a comparison between China and India. Water, MDPI. 13(10): 1387.

Pehlivanoğlu, F., and M. Tanga. 2016. An analysis on the validity of Okun's law: case of Turkey and BRICS. Uluslararası Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 2(3): 31-44

Pesaran, M. H., Y. Shin and R. J. Smith. 2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied

Phillips, P. C. and P. Perron. 1988. Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2): 335-346. Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers. 1038.

Sam, C. Y., R. McNown and S. K. Goh. 2019. An augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds test for cointegration. Economic Modelling, 80: 130-141

Samour, A., and U. Korkut. 2022. The impact of the US interest rate and oil prices on renewable energy in Turkey : a bootstrap ARDL approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 0123456789.

Sen, A. 2000. Development as Freedom, Alfred A. Knope Inc., New York. pp: 21

Slacalek, J. 2004. Productivity and the Natural Rate of Unemployment. DIW Berlin German Institute for Economic Research. (461): 1-38.

Shukr, A. S. and B. H. Hameed. 2021. An economic analysis of the relationship between economic growth and the environment: in Iraq for the period 2000-2017. Iraqi Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 52(3):640-646.







How to Cite


Publication Dates

Similar Articles

1-10 of 43

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.